Sn jelibon cuma günü fed toplantısının sonucu ne olabilir ve bu gümüş ve altın ne yönde etkiler sizin öngörünüz nedir bu konuda?
Sizede şimdiden iyi bayramlar..
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Sn jelibon cuma günü fed toplantısının sonucu ne olabilir ve bu gümüş ve altın ne yönde etkiler sizin öngörünüz nedir bu konuda?
Sizede şimdiden iyi bayramlar..
Bugün 3.üncü zafer barı.
Kaldı en az 3 en çok 6 bar daha.
Ewden çözemezsek bardan çözeriz tarihten çözeriz napalım.
Yanlız teyid ister 6 gün içinde 1208 geçmek ister.
Jelibon.
Bu ralliler boyunca hiç katkısaı olmayan finansallar dünden itibaren kıpırdanmaya başladı.
BAC tuvalet kağıdı fiyatına tam al tuttu.
Jelibon.
3 günde %30 yapan citi.
Finansallar geliyor.
Ne demek bu?
Q3 geliyor.
Daha doğrusu tam Q3 değil benzeri likidide arttıracak özallikle banklara yararlı birşey geliyor.
Birileri kokuyu aldı.
Jelibon.
Finansallarda PAPATYA ON THE ROCKS.
Bir dip 8'i, bir dip 23'ü.
Biri ana tarih biri fibo pencerenin ilk günü.
Jelibon.
[QUOTE=turkishmojo;372924]Sn jelibon cuma günü fed toplantısının sonucu ne olabilir ve bu gümüş ve altın ne yönde etkiler sizin öngörünüz nedir bu konuda?
Sizede şimdiden iyi bayramlar..[/QUOTE]
Sayın Turkishmojo,
Haber maber benim için tırıvırıdır, zaten gelecekte olan bir haberi ve nasıl olacağını bilmem imkansız ama caldero birşeyler karalamış bu konuda onu yayınlayım.
Bir okurum Türkçeyede çeviririm, daha okumadım.
Jelibon.
Jackson Hole speech?
Posted on August 24, 2011 by tony caldaro
Bernanke’s famous 2002 helicopter Ben speech:
[url]http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2002/20021121/default.htm[/url]
So what then might the Fed do if its target interest rate, the overnight federal funds rate, fell to zero? One relatively straightforward extension of current procedures would be to try to stimulate spending by lowering rates further out along the Treasury term structure–that is, rates on government bonds of longer maturities.9There are at least two ways of bringing down longer-term rates, which are complementary and could be employed separately or in combination. [1] One approach, similar to an action taken in the past couple of years by the Bank of Japan, would be for the Fed to commit to holding the overnight rate at zero for some specified period. Because long-term interest rates represent averages of current and expected future short-term rates, plus a term premium, a commitment to keep short-term rates at zero for some time–if it were credible–would induce a decline in longer-term rates. [2] A more direct method, which I personally prefer, would be for the Fed to begin announcing explicit ceilings for yields on longer-maturity Treasury debt (say, bonds maturing within the next two years). The Fed could enforce these interest-rate ceilings by committing to make unlimited purchases of securities up to two years from maturity at prices consistent with the targeted yields. If this program were successful, not only would yields on medium-term Treasury securities fall, but (because of links operating through expectations of future interest rates) yields on longer-term public and private debt (such as mortgages) would likely fall as well.
At the last FOMC meeting the FED gave, for the first time, a specific time period to zero interest rates: mid-2013. And, three FED governors voted against it.
[url]http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20110809a.htm[/url]
To promote the ongoing economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that economic conditions–including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run–are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013. The Committee also will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate.
After the announcement the stock market rallied, after a dip to SPX 1102, to SPX 1208 over the next week. 10YR rates dropped to record lows. Then everything went into a trading range awaiting Jackson Hole. Should Bernanke hint at step 2: targeting specific term rates next, the 30YR rate could plummet. Currently around 3.5%. The record low on the 30YR is 2.52%. A 1% drop in 30YR rates, especially if targeted by the FED over the next two years, would drop mortgage rates to record lows for an extended period of time, increasing affordability. The equity market would likely rally for a while, in response, seeking a better rate of return. Gold would drop without a QE 3. And, the USD may strengthen. We’ll know by friday.
After the announcement the stock market rallied, after a dip to SPX 1102, to SPX 1208 over the next week. 10YR rates dropped to record lows. Then everything went into a trading range awaiting Jackson Hole. Should Bernanke hint at step 2: targeting specific term rates next, the 30YR rate could plummet. Currently around 3.5%. The record low on the 30YR is 2.52%. A 1% drop in 30YR rates, especially if targeted by the FED over the next two years, would drop mortgage rates to record lows for an extended period of time, increasing affordability. The equity market would likely rally for a while, in response, seeking a better rate of return. Gold would drop without a QE 3. And, the USD may strengthen. We’ll know by friday.
Sadece son paragraf yeter.
1102 den trading range oldu diyor.
Jackson hall kararı bekleniyor diyor.
Mortage la alakalı konu anladığım, ona bir adım atılırsa diyor bu tamda q3 olmaz ama alımı arttırır, endeksler artar, altın düşer falan filan diyor.
Cumaya görürüz diyor.
Ben bu calderonun hiç böyle makro yaptığını görmedim hayatımda, o da skışmış ewde, piyasa ara değerde kalırsa başa bu gelir işte, makrolarsın.
Habere göre ew.
Jelibon.
1187 oew pis reject oldu,
13 ema backtest.
Kritiktir.
Jelibon.
13 ema aşağıda,
20 mov yukarıda.
İkisi anahtar burada.
Hangisi kırılırsa aynı yöne.
Jelibon.
vay anam vay gün içi yükseğe göre 33 puan aşağıya.
1167 oew.
Aynı zamanda 10 HO.
Son kale.
Jelibon.
I love 30-40-50 vix.
Ne lem 15 vixde trade mi olurmuş.
Trade dediğin patada kütede olacak.
Niye sarıgıza kaçtık, sarıgız hergün böyle.
Jelibon.
[QUOTE=jelibon;372893]Perşembe haftanın dibi olurda nerde olur?
En azından tepki gelecek. O tepki sırasında fed haberini bekleyecek sonra yön yapacak.
Jelibon.[/QUOTE]
Vay be
Jelibon