Gold-Crash yakında yolda mı?
The new geography of global innovation
While the United States and Japan remain leaders in innovation,
increased competition from growth markets, notably China, suggests a
changing landscape. Research and development spending in Asia
surpassed EU levels in 2005, and is likely to overtake US levels in the
next five years, thanks primarily to striking growth in R&D investment
in China.
Measures of R&D intensity, or R&D investment as a share of GDP,
allow for cross-country comparisons of commitment to R&D. R&D
intensity has remained flat across G7 markets during the last decade at
2.1%. In China it has impressively doubled as a share of GDP since
1999, reaching 1.5%, which remains low by international standards.
R&D investment is driven largely by the corporate sector, which
finances more than two-thirds of total R&D spending in many
countries. Companies in a range of industries, from pharmaceuticals to
technology hardware, have exposure to new hubs of global innovation.
Pipeline concerns and the role of human capital
The new geography of global innovation is critically dependent upon
higher education in science and engineering (S&E) fields. Student
interest in S&E is low in G7 countries, suggesting that these markets
are likely to have difficulty replacing an aging cohort of native-born
scientists and engineers. Reliance on foreign-born skilled labor is set to
rise further as the world’s S&E skill base shifts toward Asia, notably
China, where S&E fields represent 40% of all new university degrees
awarded (more than two and a half times US levels).
New geography demands a policy response
Innovation-led productivity growth in the G7 will increasingly require
public policies which attract and retain skilled foreign students and
workers. In the short term, a more flexible and talent-friendly
immigration regime can help developed economies and companies to
benefit from the globalization of S&E skills. Longer-term investments in
R&D and science education can further enable G7 countries to remain
competitive by rebuilding student interest in S&E fields and by
expanding the domestic supply of skilled S&E labor.
Goldman Sachs & Co.
Today's top market storıes
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Gold futures sold off Friday on concerns China will soon take steps to rein in its inflation and move to increase interest rates.
Gold for December delivery /quotes/comstock/21e!f:gc\z10 (GCZ10 1,365, -38.80, -2.77%) dropped $37.80, or 2.7%, to $1,365.50 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. That was gold’s largest one-day drop since early July.
The contract earlier traded as low as $1,359.30 an ounce, according to FactSet Research.
Gold had lost more than $30 overnight, but seemed to have recovered somewhat at the start of floor trading. Nervous investors, however, pulled the plug on gold after they saw other commodities and stocks selling off.
On the week, gold has lost 2.3%, its worst weekly decline in four weeks and a first drop after two consecutive weekly gains.
If China tightens, it raises the likelihood more countries would follow suit, said Matt Zeman, a trader at LaSalle Futures in Chicago. Gold would lose one of its main engines so far: fear of inflation, he added.
Moreover, gold, which earlier this week posted a fourth consecutive record high, and silver, which has traded at 30-year highs almost daily, “are markets that are going to be very vulnerable to profit-taking,” he said.
Gold may hurt investors
Many investors expect gold to protect their portfolio from economic uncertainty, but gold's recent sharp rise is being fueled by speculation that could end badly for buyers, says Kurt Brouwer, editor of MarketWatch's FundMastery blog.
The contract gained $4 in New York Thursday to settle at $1,403.30 an ounce. See Thursday's metals column.
Markets worldwide were abuzz with talk China is preparing for an interest-rate increase to counter rising inflation.
The country said Thursday its inflation rose 4.4%, its highest in two years.
Some, however, welcomed gold’s retreat.
“I would call this pullback some froth being taken off the market,” said Julian Phillips, editor at GoldForecaster.com. “I do believe that a large number of short position holders were badly squeezed in the runup too, [so] this current temporary pullback will be a consolidation period.”
Losses in gold prices came as the U.S. dollar index /quotes/comstock/11j!i:dxy0 (DXY 78.09, -0.13, -0.16%) , which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, declined to 77.894 from 78.16 late Thursday in North American trading. Oil’s benchmark contract fell more than 3%. Read more about oil, other commodities.
TODAY'S TOP MARKET STORIES
Phillips pointed out that “retail demand from India was pretty good this year, but that is complete, so the market is back to where it was before.” Indians celebrated last week one of the Hindu calendar’s most traditional holidays to buy gold.
Also, the Group of 20 summit “is an influence and a disappointing one,” he said. “The head of the World Bank has raised the subject of gold as a reference point for currencies and values. This has opened the way for a greater role for gold in the monetary system. This will underpin gold in the $1,380 area.”
Other metals followed gold’s lead, as silver for December delivery /quotes/comstock/21e!f1:si\z10 (SIZ10 2,593, -147.50, -5.38%) lost $1.46, or 5.3%, to $25.94 an ounce. On the week, silver lost 3.1%. The loss comes after three consecutive weekly gains, including last week’s 8.9% increase.
December copper /quotes/comstock/21e!f:hg\z10 (HGZ10 388.75, -13.50, -3.36%) declined 13 cents, or 3.2%, to $3.89 per pound. Copper lost 1.5% on the week.
Palladium, which had bucked the trend till midsession, turned lower. The December contract /quotes/comstock/21n!f:pa\z10 (PAZ10 674.75, -29.40, -4.18%) retreated $30.50, or 4.3%, to $673.65 an ounce. Palladium has dropped 1.7% on the week.
Platinum for January delivery /quotes/comstock/21n!f2:pl\f11 (PLF11 1,676, -70.00, -4.01%) was off $61.20, or 3.5%, to $1,684.60 an ounce. The metal amassed 4.8% in weekly losses.
Claudia Assis is a San Francisco-based reporter for MarketWatch. Myra P. Saefong is MarketWatch's assistant global markets editor, based in Tokyo.
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